ارائه مدلی به‌منظور بهبود ایمنی بافت‌هـای شهـری در برابر زلزلــه با توسعه پایگاه‌های جستجو، نجات و امداد

نوع مقاله : Articles

نویسندگان

پژوهشگاه بین‌المللی زلزله‌شناسی و مهندسی زلزله

چکیده

وقوع زلزله‌‌های شدید همواره اثرات زیان‌بار و جبران‌ناپذیری را خصوصاً در شهرهای بزرگ و پرجمعیت از جنبه‌‌های فیزیکی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی به همراه دارد. از طرفی با توجه به محدودیت‌‌های مالی و اجرایی، امکان کاهش ریسک و کنترل پیامدهای زلزله در همه جهات معمولاً فراهم نیست. بنابراین می‌‌بایست مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار در ریسک زلزله شناسایی‌شده و با در نظر گرفتن نحوه مشارکت و میزان اهمیت هر یک در افزایش یا کاهش ریسک، تدابیر لازم جهت مدیریت بحران اتخاذ گردد. در تحقیق حاضر، برای مکان‌یابی پایگاه‌های امداد و نجات در بافت‌های شهری، مدلی جدید مبتنی بر ترکیب مؤلفه‌های خطر، آسیب‌‌پذیـری و وضعیت ظرفیت‌های موجود ارائه‌ شده است. به این منظور شاخصی با عنوان شاخص تجمیعی ایمنی در برابر زلزله1 (IESI) معرفی‌شده که از ترکیب وزنی مؤلفه‌های مرتبط حاصل می‌شود. در این روش، مؤلفه خطر از پارامترهای خطر زلزله و مخاطرات ثانویه و مؤلفه آسیب‌پذیری از پارامتـرهای آسیب‌پذیری فیـزیکی و انسانـی تشکیل شده ‌است که هـر دوی این مؤلفه‌ها اثر کاهنده بر ایمنی دارند. همچنین مؤلفه وضعیت ظرفیت‌های موجود که اثری افزاینده بر میزان ایمنی دارد بر اساس سه پارامتر فضاهای خدماتـی، میـزان آمادگـی و تـوان برنامه‌ریـزی و مدیریت شهـری مورد سنجش قرار می‌گیرد. در نهایت شاخص ارائه‌شده برای برآورد ایمنی در برابر زلزله از ترکیب شاخص‌های خطر، آسیب‌‌پذیری و وضعیت ظرفیت‌های موجود برای پهنه‌های آماری هر منطقه شهری محاسبه می‌شود و مکان‌یابی پایگاه‌های جستجو و نجات به کمک این شاخص انجام می‌‌پذیرد. در ضمن، مؤلفه‌هایی که امکان تغییر در کوتاه‌مدت برای آنها وجود داشته، بهبود داده شده‌اند و شاخص ایمنی در برابر زلزله مجدداً محاسبه و مکان‌یابی پایگاه‌ها انجام گرفته ‌است.A New Model for Improving Safety Level of Urban Fabrics to Earthquakes by Locating Search and Rescue BasesRobabeh Robat Mili, Kamabod Amini Hosseini, Yasamin O. Izadkhah  Urban fabrics in developing countries are growing rapidly, without sufficient attention to sustainable development criteria. Nowadays, there are many big cities that accommodate millions of residents, while most of them are exposed to natural hazards. Accordingly, the growth rate of big cities has been considerable in Iran especially during the last decades. More than 70 percentages of population are now living in urban areas, while 60 years ago this proportion was vice versa. This has caused further exposure of human lives to natural disasters, including strong earthquakes. Therefore, in the occurrence of an earthquake in such fabrics, heavy destruction and considerable socio-economic consequences can be expectable.In order to reduce the potential impacts of earthquakes in such cities, different measures could be taken into account to mitigate vulnerability and increase coping capacities. However, due to the shortages of technical and financial resources, especially in developing countries like Iran, priority activities should be selected based on the acceptable risk level and available capacities to determine the most feasible and effective interventions in different urban zones. Therefore, it is necessary to develop appropriate methodologies to be used for prioritization of applicable risk reduction and disaster management measures.In this paper, a new approach is developed to assess the existing earthquake risk in urban fabrics. For this purpose, different physical as well as socio-economic parameters affecting the safety level of urban areas have been identified and classified to understand their impacts on earthquake risk level. The parameters in the model and their weights have been determined based on expert judgments, using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). For this purpose, a questionnaire based survey has been implemented through city managers, engineers, planners and disaster management experts. According to the results of the survey, most important parameters and indicators have been selected and weighted. Additionally, the effects of different measures on improving response capacities and the efficiency of other applicable interventions on risk level have been evaluated.By applying this model, the effectiveness of developing community-based activities as well as the establishment of additional search and rescue bases for risk reduction have been evaluated and compared. The results revealed that besides the importance of capacity building in relevant search, rescue and relief organizations (such as fire-fighting stations or medical care centers), promoting public participation in disaster risk management activities can also be considered as an important priority in short-term planning to reduce earthquake risk and to improve response capacity.The proposed methodology can be applied for prioritizing risk reduction and management measures in any places based on local conditions, if the relevant parameters could be estimated locally. By using this decision support measure, the local managers might be able to evaluate the effectiveness of any different interventions on risk and safety level of urban fabrics, before approving intervention plans. This can help them to allocate the limited available budget to the most critical projects.Keywords: Tehran, Rescue and Relief Bases, Vulnerability, Earthquake, Disaster Management.

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مراجع

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