شبیه‌سازی سیکل‌های زلزله مبتنی بر فیزیک لغزش جهت ارزیابی پارامترهای لرزه‌ای در ناحیه البرز

نوع مقاله : Articles

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکده های فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 مرکز تحقیقات لرزه شناسی، مؤسسه فناوری زوریخ، زوریخ، سوئیس

3 پژوهشکده زلزله شناسی، پژوهشگاه بین المللی زلزله شناسی و مهندسی زلزله، تهران، ایران

4 دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به قرارگیری اکثر مراکز جمعیتی البرز در محدوده گسل‌‌ها، مطالعه دقیق‌‌تر احتمال وقوع زلزله می‌تواند نقشی مهمی در کاهش خسارت‌های ناشی از زلزله داشته باشد. در همین راستا، با هدف برآورد دقیق‌‌تر دوره بازگشت زلزله‌های بزرگ در ناحیه البرز، شبیه‌‌سازی از وقوع زلزله­ها صورت‌گرفته و کاتالوگ لرز‌ه‌ای مصنوعی برای بازه زمانی400 هزار ساله ارائه شده است. با هدف صحت‌سنجی شبیه‌سازی صورت­گرفته، پارامترهای لرزه‌خیزی برای ناحیه البرز برآورد و با نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از شبیه‌سازی مقایسه شد. از سوی دیگر، کاتالوگ لرزه‌‌ای پیشنهادی با مطالعات قبلی دیرینه‌‌لرزه‌‌شناسی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت و سازگاری موارد فوق نشان از صحت مدل ارائه شده دارد. با در اختیار داشتن کاتالوگ لرزه­ای بلندمدت، بزرگای زلزله مشخصه و توزیع دوره بازگشت مرتبط با آن برای تمامی گسل‌‌های فعال البرز گزارش و بررسی آماری نشان‌دهنده‌ی رفتار متناسب با زمان دوره بازگشت زلزله‌هاست. همچنین، بررسی احتمال وقوع زلزله در گسل‌های فعال البرز برای دوره‌های زمانی مختلف نشان‌دهنده‌ی آن است که هر چه زمان بیشتری از وقوع آخرین رخداد گذشته باشد احتمال وقوع زلزله بیشتر خواهد بود؛ این موضوع تأییدکننده تئوری رید و ضرورت استفاده از شبیه‌‌سازی بلندمدت برای برآورد دقیق‌‌تر از احتمال وقوع زلزله است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Physics-Based Earthquake Simulation for the Alborz Region to Evaluate Seismicity Parameters

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadreza Alipour 1
  • Alireza Khodaverdian 2
  • Hamid Zafarani 3
  • Mohammad Rahimian 4
1 School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Seismological Research Center, Zorich Institute of Technology, Zorich, Switzerland
3 Seismological Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran
4 University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The Iranian Plateau is characterized as one of the most seismic regions in the world, and the most populated cities are located near its active faults, indicating high possible seismic risk. Estimation of earthquake occurrence probabilities can play an important role in earthquake damage mitigation. In the present study, earthquake simulation technique, based on the boundary elements method, is used for the Alborz region in order to have more accurate estimates of earthquakes return periods and consider faults interaction. First of all, seismic parameters for the region are evaluated using the obtained synthetic catalog. In addition, the synthetic activity rates are also compared to independent past studies (e.g. paleoseismological investigation). The estimated return periods lie within the uncertainties of previous studies, showing robustness of the proposed model. As the next step, characteristic earthquake magnitude and its return period distribution are presented for all active faults in the study region. According to the synthetic catalog, earthquake occurrence probability for an individual fault is related to the time elapsed from the last earthquake while earthquakes occurrence tends to a random behavior if all active faults in the region are considered together. Given the long-term seismic catalog and determination of the last earthquakes for each fault, earthquakes occurrence probabilities are estimated for the next 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for all active faults. The more time elapse form the last earthquake, the more earthquake occurrence probabilities are estimated, confirming Reid’s theory and proving necessity of long-term simulation to have a better estimate of earthquakes occurrence probabilities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Physics-Based Earthquake Simulation
  • Seismicity Parameters
  • Earthquakes Return Periods
  • Probabilities of Earthquakes Occurrence
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