حساسیت نتایج شبیه‌سازی حرکت زمین به پارامترهای ورودی در روش گسل محدود تصادفی؛ مطالعه موردی: گسل نیاوران تهران

نوع مقاله : Articles

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه شهید مدنی آذربایجان

2 دانشگاه کانازاوا

چکیده

نتایج حرکت‌های زمین به‌دست‌آمده از روش‌های شبیه‌سازی به‌شدت بستگی به میزان دقت پارامترهای ورودی دارد، به‌طوری‌که می‌توانند مقادیر بیشینه، محتوای فرکانسی و مدت تداوم حرکت را تحت تأثیر قرار دهند. در این مطالعه به‌منظور ارزیابی میزان اثرات عدم قطعیت در پارامترهای چشمه، مسیر و ساختگاه، مقایسه‌ای بین نتایج شبیه‌سازی 19 سناریوی آزمایشی با پارامترهای متفاوت نسبت به سناریوی مرجع، انجام گرفته است. برای دستیابی به این هدف گسل نیاوران در شمال تهران به‌عنوان گسل هدف انتخاب شد که با بزرگی گشتاوری 7 به‌ترتیب باعث ایجاد میانگین شتاب و سرعت حداکثر 600 سانتی‌متر بر مجذور ثانیه و 60 سانتی‌متر بر ثانیه در محدوده‌ی مورد مطالعه می‌شود. بر اساس نتایج، پارامترهای بزرگی گشتاوری، افت تنش، بخش مربوط به فرکانس فاکتور کیفیت، توزیع هندسی و کاپا بیشترین اثر و پارامترهای شیب گسل، نقطه‌ی شروع گسیختگی، سرعت گسیختگی، سطح تپنده دارای کمترین اثر بر نتایج هستند. همچنین محدوده‌ی پایین فرکانسی (کمتر از 1 هرتز) توسط پارامترهای نقطه‌ی شروع گسیختگی و بزرگی گشتاوری و حرکت‌های با فرکانس‌های بالاتر توسط پارامترهای افت تنش، فاکتور کیفیت، کاپا و بزرگی گشتاوری کنترل می‌شوند.

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