Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
Iranian research organization for science and technology
2
]ranian research organization for science and technology
3
Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran
Abstract
Earthquake forecasting remains one of the most pressing challenges in the geosciences. Space-based sensing has emerged as an innovative technique for detecting potential earthquake precursors, particularly through observation of ionospheric and stratospheric anomalies. The primary objective of this research is to systematically investigate and assess the effectiveness of different satellite payloads for earthquake precursor detection, with a specific focus on identifying and recommending a suitable payload for deployment on a domestic Iranian satellite platform.
A comprehensive literature review highlights several classes of space-based precursor signals, including changes in the electrical and magnetic fields detected in the ULF, ELF, and VLF frequency bands, ionospheric total electron content (TEC) fluctuations, and stratospheric temperature anomalies. To critically evaluate the practicality and performance of these payloads, data from international missions such as CSES-1, DEMETER, and TIMED were analyzed alongside studies of recent major earthquakes in Iran and worldwide.
Among the investigated methods, ULF-band electric field detectors show promising results in detecting electromagnetic anomalies up to several days before significant seismic events, especially for earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.8. However, their practical application on smaller satellites is constrained by the need for long deployable booms and stable attitude systems—features not present in the selected domestic platform, which utilizes gravity-gradient stabilization. Similarly, search coil magnetometers offer valuable high-resolution electromagnetic measurements, but their optimal performance requires non-conductive structures for boom mounting, which are not compatible with the current satellite’s conductive (copper-beryllium) stabilization boom.
Alternatively, ionospheric tomography using a tri-band radio beacon is identified as the most viable and effective technique for the domestic satellite. This payload can transmit three simultaneous, phase-coherent signals (VHF, UHF, L-band) toward the ground, where an array of ground stations receive the signals and, through tomographic processing of phase and amplitude variations, reconstruct three-dimensional maps of ionospheric electron density. The technical simplicity and low mass/power requirements of the tri-band beacon make it fully compatible with the constraints of the domestic satellite platform. Furthermore, the satellite’s existing communication subsystems can be leveraged, enabling cost-effective integration and operation.
Complementary approaches, such as satellite radiometers for stratospheric temperature monitoring and ground-to-satellite VLF signal analysis, add further diagnostic power but are limited in this context due to size, mass, or technical incompatibilities. Nonetheless, the inclusion of store-and-forward data relay capabilities provides a major advantage for collecting seismological data from remote ground-based stations, improving the timeliness and coverage of earthquake early warning systems.
In conclusion, after detailed evaluation against mission, technical, and operational requirements, the tri-band beacon payload is recommended as the optimal solution for the domestic satellite. This instrument provides a robust, and scientifically validated means for space-based monitoring of earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies over Iran. The implementation of a dedicated ground receiver network will further enhance the system's effectiveness and advance Iran's capabilities in earthquake precursor research and early warning.
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