Bulletin of Earthquake Science and Engineering

Bulletin of Earthquake Science and Engineering

Assessment of Age-Related Degradation Effects on the Risk of Seismic NaTech Events: A Case Study Using OpenSRANE

Document Type : Research Article

Authors
Bijan Sayyafzadeh 1
Mahdi Sharifi 2
Abdolreza Sarvghad Moghadam 3
Saeedeh Koohestani 1
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technical and Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technical and Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Structural Engineering Research Center, International Institute of Earthquakes Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
10.48303/bese.2024.2032629.1174
Abstract
Today, with the growth of oil and gas industries, the growth of accidents caused by the effect of natural hazards on these industries is also observed. This category of technological accidents caused by natural hazards is called NaTech events. The severity of the damages caused by these events clarified the need for communities and researchers to evaluate and control this category of events or mitigate their risks. Quantitative risk assessment of NaTech events is one of the methods and approaches adopted for this purpose. In this method, the vulnerability of structures is estimated by using fragility curves obtained from different methods. Numerical analysis methods are one of the most widely used methods for calculating fragility curves. The fragility curve of the elements and components of a plant is conventionally calculated based on the characteristics of their construction time using various numerical analyses. While generally, in calculating fragilities, the effect of aging of structures on fragility and subsequently their effect on the results of risk assessments of industrial plants are not taken into account. Most of the studies conducted to calculate the fragility of structures are based on the basic characteristics and properties of the structures. This is while the structures lose their original features due to the age deterioration. From a seismic analysis point of view, aging or deterioration may affect dynamic properties, structural response, strength or capacity, failure modes, and failure initiation locations. The aging of the equipment affects the seismic fragility curve in two ways: on the average capacity and on the uncertainties, the former being potentially more important. Deterioration, often seen as a reduction in cross-sectional area or cracking, reduces the strength (equipment) and thus exacerbates brittleness. It is obvious that the fragilities variation clearly affects the risk assessment results of oil and gas industries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of deterioration caused by the aging of tanks on the quantitative seismic risk results in oil and gas industries. In this study, a storage plant has been selected as a case study, and while introducing the OpenSRANE software, which is a flexible and extensible software, calculations and evaluations related to the seismic risk of NaTech events of the said plant have been carried out using the mentioned software or platform. By assigning the fragility corresponding to different deterioration ages, the seismic risk of NaTech events has been calculated for each age, and the results for different ages have been compared. It is worth mentioning that due to not having enough information about the effect of aging of structures on the relevant probit functions, the calculations have been done ignoring the mentioned effect, and the evaluation of this effect is left to future studies.
Keywords
NaTech
Risk Assessment
Oil and Gas Industries
Aging of Equipment

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 17 June 2024
  • Revise Date 16 October 2024
  • Accept Date 11 November 2024