اثر تنش کولمب بر مدل های وابسته به زمان احتمال وقوع زلزله در زاگرس

نوع مقاله : Articles

نویسندگان

1 مؤسسه آموزش عالی آل‌طه، تهران

2 پژوهشکده زلزله شناسی، پژوهشگاه بین‌المللی زلزله‌شناسی و مهندسی زلزله، تهران

چکیده

به دلیل برهم‌کنش چشمه های لرزه زا، وقوع یک زلزله احتمال وقوع زلزله های آینده را در منطقه تحت تأثیر قرار می دهد. در این مطالعه احتمال وقوع زلزله های با بزرگای Mw≥5.8 بر اساس مدل های وابسته به زمان بی پی تی و ویبل برای دوره 10، 30 و 50 ساله در بخشی از منطقه زاگرس ارزیابی شده است. ابتدا تغییرات تنش کولمب ناشی از برهم-کنش زمین لرزه ها در هر گسل محاسبه شده است. سپس اثر این تغییر تنش در احتمال وقوع زلزله های مشخصه5 برحسب هر دو اثر دائمی (تغییر زمان) و گذرا (نرخ- حالت) تغییرات تنش کولمب ارزیابی شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که مدل ویبل احتمال بالایی از وقوع زلزله را نسبت به مدل بی پی تی در منطقه تخمین زده است. در نظر گرفتن اثرات تغییر تنش زلزله ها، موجب تغییر در نتایج احتمالات شرطی به‌دست‌آمده از هر دو مدل بی پی تی و ویبل شد، به‌طوری‌که در برخی چشمه های لرزه زا موجب افزایش و در برخی دیگر موجب کاهش نتایج احتمال شد. بیشترین احتمال به‌دست‌آمده مربوط به گسل کازرون است که این امر نشان دهنده‌ی فعالیت لرزه ای بالای این گسل است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 11 بهمن 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 18 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 06 دی 1399

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